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What Will Your Paycheck Look Like in Retirement?

Your retirement paycheck is what you can sustainably withdraw from your savings every month without a high risk of running out — not your account balance, and not a rough 4%-of-savings guess. Run the numbers below with your own age, savings, and contribution to see your real figure in about a minute, no account needed.

How is my retirement paycheck actually calculated?

We run 5,000 simulations of your entire retirement, each one built by randomly drawing a real U.S. market year (going back to 1928) for every year of your plan — not an average return applied in a straight line, and not a made-up statistical curve. We then find the highest monthly amount that would have lasted in at least 90% of those 5,000 simulated paths — 9 in 10 odds, not a coin flip. Every figure is in today's dollars, already adjusted for inflation, not a future amount that looks bigger just because prices went up.

That's the actual difference between this and a back-of-envelope number: markets don't return the same amount every year, and a few bad years early in retirement can hurt far more than the same bad years spread out evenly — a problem called sequence-of-returns risk. Drawing from real historical years thousands of times, instead of one smoothed-out average, is what exposes that risk instead of hiding it.

Why is this different from a simple 4% rule calculation?

The 4% rule is a rough starting point: withdraw 4% of your starting balance each year, adjusted for inflation, and it historically held up over 30-year retirements. It's a reasonable rule of thumb, but it doesn't know your actual retirement age, planning horizon, tax situation, or Social Security — it's the same 4% whether you're retiring at 55 or 68. Our number is built from your real inputs and reports what you'd actually get to spend after tax, not a gross withdrawal percentage you still have to do more math on.

How do I know if my retirement paycheck is enough?

Compare it to what you spend. The estimate asks for your monthly spending and shows the gap directly — covered by a margin, or short by a specific amount — because a paycheck number on its own doesn't answer the question you're actually asking. If you spend $5,000 a month and your savings can safely produce $4,100, you're $900 short, and the estimate shows the smallest change that closes it. If you'd like a floor, the full plan also shows what your savings would produce if you stopped contributing today. For why a lump-sum target like “$1 million” doesn't answer this on its own, see how much you actually need to retire.

Frequently asked questions

Do I need to link my bank account?

No. Every number in the estimate is one you type in yourself — there's no bank linking, no statement upload, and nothing connects to your real accounts.

Is it free?

Yes. The estimate above, your chance-of-success percentage, and the full detailed plan (real accounts, Social Security, spending, household/spousal support) are all free, with no account required to see a result.

How accurate is this compared to a financial advisor's plan?

It's a real Monte Carlo estimate, not a guess — but it's only as detailed as what you enter. The quick version above is a starting point; adding your real accounts, Social Security benefit, and a full spending breakdown in the full plan sharpens it considerably.

What does "chance of success" mean?

It's the percentage of those 5,000 simulated market histories in which your money lasted through your whole planning horizon without running out. A higher percentage means the number is safer across more of the historical scenarios we tested it against, not a guarantee about the future.

What if I'm married or already have a Social Security estimate?

The full plan supports household mode — independent Social Security for both spouses, per-spouse required minimum distributions, and a survivor-benefit preview — plus your real claiming age instead of assuming it matches your retirement age.

By the MangoDime team · Last updated September 14, 2026